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AGE AS IMPORTANT FACTOR IN TREATMENT OF PERIPHERAL ARTERIAL DISEASE: MONTE CARLO NUMERICAL ANALYSIS APPLICATION

IVANA DAMNJANOVIĆ 1*, NIKOLA STEFANOVIĆ 1, IVAN PAVLOVIĆ 2, ZORAN DAMNJANOVIĆ 3,4

1University of Niš, Department of Pharmacy, Faculty of Medicine, Serbia
2University of of Niš, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Serbia
3University of Niš, Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, Serbia
4University Clinical Center Niš, Clinic for Vascular surgery, Serbia

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Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is a growing global health concern, with age being the strongest non-modifiable risk factor for its progression. Despite various therapeutic options, the chronic nature of PAD makes achieving optimal treatment outcomes challenging. This study aimed to identify a mathematical correlation using a hypothetical patient cohort to assess the impact of age on claudication distance (CD) improvement after six months of pharmacological therapy. A total of 82 PAD patients were treated with dual therapy: pentoxifylline + acetyl-salicylic acid (ASA/PEN) or cilostazol + acetyl-salicylic acid (ASA/CIL). Results showed a significant increase in CD after six months in the ASA/CIL group (p = 0.042). Age was also significantly associated with both initial CD (p < 0.001) and CD improvement after treatment (p < 0.013). Monte Carlo (MC) simulation highlighted the benefit of early ASA/CIL therapy, particularly in patients aged 55 - 65 years, for maximizing walking distance improvements. Our findings suggest that MC numerical analysis is a valuable tool for PAD treatment optimization, demonstrating strong predictive ability. Further studies with larger cohorts are needed to validate this approach and refine individualized treatment strategies.