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PRICE DYNAMICS AND SUPPLY DISRUPTIONS IN SYSTEMIC ANTIBIOTICS: A LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS OF ATC J01 MEDICINES IN ROMANIA

OANA-TEODORA CHIRAC ¹, ADRIANA-ELENA TĂEREL ²*, MIHAELA DINU ¹, ROBERT ANCUCEANU 1

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Drug shortages represent a challenge for healthcare systems, particularly affecting essential medicines. This study investi- gates the relationship between long-term price dynamics and supply disruptions within the ATC J01 class in Romania. A retrospective observational analysis was conducted using wholesale price data (2008 - 2024) and official shortage notifica- tions (2017 - 2025). Price erosion indicators were calculated, and their association with supply disruptions was assessed using comparative statistics and logistic regression. Results showed that antibiotics associated with shortages experienced signifi- cantly lower overall price erosion over the 2008 - 2024 period than those without disruptions (p < 0.01). Logistic regression confirmed an inverse association between price erosion and the probability of shortage (OR = 0.758). These findings suggest that market rigidity, rather than price compression alone, may represent a key determinant of supply vulnerability. Greater price flexibility may reflect competitive and adaptive market conditions that enhance supply resilience. The study highlights the need for balanced pharmaceutical policies integrating affordability with long-term market sustainability.